Fresh from some of the midweek winners, Jones Knows is targeting this weekend’s Premier League matches with Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool on Sunday.
Any midweek winners for Jones Knows?
- Aston Villa will win 2-0 at Norwich at 8/1
- Antonio Rudiger has two or more shots against Everton at 7/4
- Arsenal will win 2-0 at West Ham at 9-1
- Southampton to win five or more corner kicks at 5/4
Wolverhampton vs Chelsea, Sunday 2 pm
Chelsea came out 8/1 with Sky Bet to win the Premier League title. They were 15/8 in November.
To some, that might seem an attractive price to Champions League holders who are just four points off the lead. However, over the past month there have been indications that Thomas Tuchel’s sons are below the level of Manchester City and Liverpool, to the point that I would be surprised now if they did not finish third.
Tuchel was at a loss to explain how they did not comfortably beat Everton on Thursday, calling it an odd result. It’s true that they found Jordan Pickford at his best, but what worries me is that they didn’t have good, consistent attacks in the last 20 minutes when they were chasing a winner. It was the same in the 3-2 win over Leeds where Jorginho took them out with two penalties. Chelsea seem to find it difficult to break through lower block defenses without the influence and natural goal instinct of Romelu Lukaku.
Also, well-organized low strike defenses are no stronger than wolves, who can be willing to send Tuchel’s frustration levels out of range at this level. Bruno Lage’s side have conceded only 14 goals this season – only Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool have conceded fewer goals.
I can see this game going down a familiar low-scoring path. Wolverhampton snatched four points from Chelsea last season, coming from behind to win 2-1 in this match. And at the prices, I’m happy to back them to win or tie with a 6/4 double chance with Sky Bet.
Expect result: 1-1
betting angle: Wolves win or tie (6/4 with SkyBet)
Newcastle and Manchester City match, Sunday 2 pm, live on Sky Sports
Trying to impress you with a proof full of value for the Manchester City match is a very difficult task. This is their complete dominance in matches, almost every potential betting angle for anything positive in terms of goals, shots or match results is too obvious to establish a serious attitude to such meager odds. Will they win? naturally. Would I like to advise gamblers to get 1/7 with Sky Bet? of course not.
Kevin De Bruyne looked at his best midweek, maybe his shot streaks are worth playing? No. He’s 8/13 and has four or more shots. It’s a ridiculously short price.
Long live Renault Super Sunday
Sunday, December 19 at 1:00 p.m.
With the kind of routine performance being done by City, my eyes wandered through the card markets with the prospect of Allan Saint-Maximin excluding this performance. The French winger suffered a muscle injury in Liverpool and was obstructed and with his absence, the chances of the cards drop dramatically.
Manchester City matches against bottom half teams tend to produce a low card count anyway due to the one-sided nature of the match as a match can end in 60 minutes. In six of their eight meetings with the final 10 teams this season, there were fewer than three cards in the game. When you throw an indulgent official into the mix in the form of Martin Atkinson, who has shown fewer than three cards in five of his last seven games and has been averaging 2.3 cards per 90 minutes this season, the under-30 achievement points seem worth taking. On 6/5 with Sky Bet.
Expect result: 0-2
Bet Angle: Book under 30 points (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham and Liverpool match, Sunday 4.30 pm, live broadcast on Sky Sports
A well-rested Spurs will challenge Liverpool to collapse under Antonio Conte, who has overseen an impressive defensive operation since his appointment. In four matches, Tottenham conceded only once with its expected goals against numbers and the shots faced numbers that only Manchester City and Liverpool during that period.
Spurs clean sheets are on the radar for the rest of the season but you have to be brave here to support Liverpool not to score 6-1 with Sky Bet. They have netted in all of their last 32 matches in all competitions, scoring 85 goals in that span. In addition, Liverpool have had almost twice as many shots, chances and touches created and touched in the penalty area than Tottenham this season. Tottenham are currently ranked third below in terms of shots and chances created.
Long live Renault Super Sunday
Sunday December 19 4:00 pm
Maybe a Liverpool clean sheet is the way to play this next? It’s a 13/8 if you want to go that route. But really, I find it difficult to place a bet with confidence without knowing the news of the team.
I am very keen on Liverpool’s yellow card chances in this match as Spurs have the ability to save and could benefit from some tired Liverpool legs. But there is little known information about the available players. Heung-Min Son, Harry Kane and Lucas Moura all have the ability to draw cards over the counter but if one or even two of them aren’t available, the likelihood of Liverpool getting cards drops. Thiago’s 15/4 with the Sky Bet Card is my main point of interest. Since the start of last season, the two fouls have averaged just over 90 minutes and he will be tasked with stopping any dangerous attacks by Spurs.
Expect result: 0-1
betting angle: Thiago was kicked out (15/4 with Sky Bet)