Our betting expert, Jones Knows, believes Brighton will beat Leeds. Check out his predictions and betting angles on all ten games.
Brighton vs Leeds match, Saturday 5.30, live broadcast on Sky Sports
After four wins in their first five matches, Brighton were in talks over a possible European push. However, the same old problems surfaced last season in front of goal and now they are without a win in their last seven games – only Newcastle and Manchester United have had fewer points in that time.
Leeds will travel with a lot of hope, but this home win is written all over it.
Brighton have an excellent recent record against Leeds, winning eight of their last nine.
The way to beat Brighton is to defend with good consistency and not let them pass their smart moves – as Aston Villa did so brilliantly last weekend. There is absolutely no chance that Marcelo Bielsa will follow this pattern, which makes it easy to see a recurring result from the two games between the two teams last season. Brighton won both games without conceding (2-0, 1-0), and collected the expected total goals from 4.6 to 1.13 as Leeds created plenty of chances while keeping their tightness on the other end.
It’s possible that some of those opportunities will come down to Tariq Lamptey, the hugely exaggerated market for player shots with Sky Bet.
Since returning from a long absence, he’s been playing much higher, almost as a right winger. He had Brighton’s best chance in the match last weekend at Aston Villa, but his effort was defeated by Aimee Martinez, and Lamptey was responsible for two shots on target in their last home game with Newcastle. His trio, Pascal Gross and Adam Webster, found some dangerous situations in the defeat to Villa but space was limited.
They’ll find more here and Lamptey is a very strong bet to fire two shots on target at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
Predict the score: 2-0
Corner bet: Tariq Lamptey takes two or more shots (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Everton match, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The fact that Everton are strangers in this confrontation fully underscores the whereabouts of these two clubs. Brentford’s score is 6/5 with Sky Bet to take the win while Everton’s injury rate is 12/5. Quotes like this suggest the market expects Brentford to finish above Everton this season – and it’s hard to argue with that.
Everton have not won any of their last six Premier League matches (D2 L4) and are at the bottom of the standings in the last six matches. They’ll head to West London without Abdullah Duqueuri, Demarie Gray, Richarlison or Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Since the start of last season, only 21 of their 63 Premier League goals have not scored and none of these four have assisted them – that’s more than 66 per cent of their total missed goals in this match. Where do the goals come from? Andros Townsend might have been amazing. that is all what I have.
Brentford has lost four of the last five, but his performance data is still solid – especially on the attack metrics. In that period, only Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City scored more projected total goals than Brentford (7.67). Although they would once again lose the effect of goalkeeper David Raya, their extra firepower in the final third makes a home win a breeze.
Predict the score: 2-0
Burnley – Tottenham, Sunday 2 pm
James Tarkowski – suspended for this – will be missed by Burnley.
Since the start of the 17/18 season, Burnley have been without Tarkovsky on 12 occasions in the Premier League. They failed to win any of those games. You have a feeling Antonio Conte’s side should stand up well to the physical challenge at Turf Moor, which is what Spurs have traditionally done. Tottenham have not lost in their last five meetings in all competitions against Burnley, and have lost only once in their last 15 meetings.
They have won 1-0 in their last two visits to Turf Moor. And a third could be on the cards for Conte, whose full-time reaction to the win over Leeds looks like a man who wants better results from performing at this point in his tenure. He can get one here.
Predict the score: 0-1
Leicester vs Watford, Sunday 2pm
Leicester on 8/13 with SkyBet? no thanks.
Spotlight has become a long-standing problem for Brendan Rodgers. Where are Rodgers’ usual crises in their attacks? They could have played so long into the night in the defeat to Chelsea without scoring last weekend.
Even more worrisome, however, Rodgers’ inability to compromise the defense should send warning signals to his superiors.
Since the start of March, only Newcastle have conceded more goals than Leicester (41) in the Premier League. One clean sheet in 18 Premier League games is a small shock to a team with ambitions in the top four. In the same period, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City held 11 goals.
To me, it looks like the backbone of the team may be entering a transition period sooner than Rodgers expected. The powers of Kasper Schmeichel and Jamie Vardy are waning. And it might get worse before it gets better with a familiar face plotting their fall into the visitors’ lair. Of course, Claudio Ranieri is best known for spending 19 months as Leicester coach, which led them to the Premier League title in 2015/2016.
He can lead Watford to a conclusion with his counter-attack style that has achieved greatness in King Power.
Predict the score: 1-1
Betting angle: Watford win or draw (13/8 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
For a team that has already beaten Liverpool and Man City (on penalties) this season, 9/1 with Sky Bet on away win seems a bit generous here.
The Hammers are perfectly equipped to cause problems with City in their quick ability to counterattack and get behind defenses. Tottenham, Southampton and Crystal Palace implemented this strategy this season against City and came out with a positive result. And let’s be honest, West Ham is ahead of those three teams in terms of points obtained over the past two seasons.
Am I brave enough to participate? It’s whether I can forgive the stench of the Hammers at Wolverhampton last weekend. Michail Antonio and Declan Rice looked legless and the usual energetic support behind the striker lacked their usual creative spark.
There is also the Man City factor to consider. They taunted like Ferrari on Wednesday against Paris Saint-Germain.
If they can constrain Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi with a predicted total of 0.78, what is the chance of Jarrod Bowen and Pablo Fornals?
Answer: I am not brave enough. A city that excels.
Predict the score: 2-1
Chelsea and Manchester United, Sunday 4.30, live on Sky Sports
This could be the last game Manchester United lose before Christmas.
Reasonable, emerging football tactics were used in the middle of the week against Villarreal and Ya Ho, clean sheets were contained and their fearsome group of attacking players took charge in the final quarter. Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Young Boys, Norwich, Brentford and Brighton are next. United could catch fire.
I can see the difficulty of beating United here too. However, this Chelsea team is finding ways to win. They are a machine.
I can swerve 4/7 with the Sky Bet for a home win and go find some juice in the player prop markets.
Chelsea’s ability to find goals from across the pitch has yet to be taken into account by the markets.
Defenders have scored thirteen of Chelsea’s 30 Premier League goals – no other team has scored more than four goals from defenders.
There are a number of angles to consider in the shooting and goal market for Chelsea players. With Harry Maguire missing, United will be weak from set pieces. This makes Antonio Rudiger (9/1 with Sky bet), Thiago Silva (8-1 with Sky bet) and Trevoh Chalobah (9-1 with Sky bet), all contenders in the goal market at any given time. Rudiger, who also loves to hit from distance, has also managed at least one shot on target in his last 11 matches in all competitions and has hit two or more times in five of his last eight Premier League matches. This is a 5/2 shot with Sky Bet speaking again and it’s a great slice of value.
Reece James is also a must player in the picks markets but this time in the picks when aiming. James is Chelsea’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with four goals as the quality of his attacking play has taken to another level. He has a striker’s instinct to score goals from a full-back – just look at his effort against Juventus in the middle of the week. It was outrageous.
James has scored seven shots on target in his last five games in all competitions, averaging 0.8 shots on target every 90 minutes this season. Sky Bet has priced James and Rudiger’s corners as way too tasty 11/1.
The price exudes value.
Predict the score: 2-1
Corner bet: Reece James has one or more shots on goal and Antonio Rudiger two or more shots (11/1 with Sky Bet)